Probability Internet Sites for further study

MA.4.4 Using probability to make decisions.

Objectives

What Learner Should Know, Understand, and Be Able to Do

Teaching Notes and Examples

M.4.4.1 Develop a probability distribution for a random variable defined for a sample space in which theoretical probabilities can be calculated; find the expected value.

Develop a theoretical probability distribution and find the expected value.

For example, find the theoretical probability distribution for the number of correct answers obtained by guessing on all five questions of a multiple choice test where each question has four choices, and find the expected grade under various grading schemes.

Probability

https://www.shmoop.com/common-core-standards/ccss-hs-s-md-4.html

Using Probability to Make Decisions

https://www.khanacademy.org/commoncore/grade-HSS-S-MD

M.4.4.2 Develop a probability distribution for a random variable defined for a sample space in which probabilities are assigned empirically; find the expected value.

Develop an empirical probability distribution and find the expected value. For example, find a current data distribution on the number of TV sets per household in the United States, and calculate the expected number of sets per household. How many TV sets would you expect to find in 100 randomly selected households.

Probability Distribution

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=7&ved=0CEAQFjAG&url=http%3A%2F%2Feducation.ohio.gov%2Fgetattachment%2FTopics%2FOhio-s-New-Learning-Standards%2FMathematics%2FHigh_School_Statistics-and-Probability_Model-Curriculum_October2013-1.pdf.aspx&ei=ec0RVNHBN8-UgwSYvYD4Dg&usg=AFQjCNHpyffrA7UVkDyKCXIkYRDSw1nsyQ&bvm=bv.74894050,d.eXY

M.4.4.3 Weigh the possible outcomes of a decision by assigning probabilities to payoff values and finding expected values. Find the expected payoff for a game of chance.

Set up a probability distribution for a random variable representing payoff values in a game of chance. For example, find the expected winnings from a state lottery ticket or a game at a fast-food restaurant.

Expected Value

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DAjVAEDil_Q

Weighing Outcomes

https://www.illustrativemathematics.org/illustrations/1197

M.4.4.4 Use probabilities to make fair decisions (e.g., drawing by lots, using a random number generator).

Make decisions based on expected values. Use expected values to compare long- term benefits of several situations.

Using Probability to Make Decisions

https://www.shmoop.com/common-core-standards/ccss-hs-s-md-6.html

M.4.4.5 Analyze decisions and strategies using probability concepts (e.g., product testing, medical testing, pulling a hockey goalie at the end of a game).

Explain in context decisions made based on expected values.

Analyzing Decisions

https://www.ct4me.net/Common-Core/hsstatistics/hss-using-probability-make-decisions.htm

Money and Probability

https://becandour.com/money.htm